Premium outlook 2026–2028

How the estimate and the scenario are made

• Estimate for 2026 = premium of the last full year × growth so far this year against the same months a year earlier, in the market's own currency and from the same quarterly source in both years. It assumes the rest of the year grows as fast as the months already published. The table also shows non-life and life growth so far; the estimate itself uses the market's total growth.
• What moved it, in the table: the insurers whose change made up a large part of the market's, and insurers that stopped reporting.
• Scenario: premium grows as fast as nominal GDP, taken as the IMF's projected real GDP growth combined with its projected consumer-price inflation (October 2026 World Economic Outlook). Across the region premium has grown about as fast as nominal GDP since 2018, but in a single year the two can differ by several points: in 2022 premium grew far more slowly than prices and caught up in 2023–2025. A market without quarterly figures for 2026 starts from its last full year grown the same way.
• Euros: at the exchange rate of the latest quarter, kept for the scenario years; the growth in local currency is the steadier figure. Bulgaria has used the euro since January 2026.
• Ranges: four in five of the same estimates made in earlier years fell inside them (table below). For 2026: tested on Statistics Estonia's monthly premium and EIOPA's quarterly premium for the seven euro and euro-pegged markets, 2019–2025, with the same months published; the fewer months, the wider the range. For all markets together the 2026 range is narrower than one market's, because the markets' misses were unrelated in those tests and partly cancel out. For the scenario: the projections of every autumn World Economic Outlook since 2017 against the premium that followed, one and two years ahead; its regional range adds up the markets' ranges, as if all missed in the same direction.
• Not foreseen: one-off events, such as a large single-premium life sale, a portfolio moving between insurers or a licence withdrawn. An insurer that stopped reporting during the year counts as having left the market; such insurers are named in the table.
• An estimate and a scenario by Polisa, not figures published by a supervisor, an association or the IMF. Each market's quarterly source is given on its market page and on the method page.

How well this worked before

Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2026, and WEO Historical Forecasts Database (data.imf.org): real GDP growth and consumer-price inflation, combined by Polisa into nominal growth. EIOPA – European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority, insurance statistics, solo, premiums (eiopa.europa.eu), used for the back-test only; this page has been drafted using material downloaded from EIOPA's website, and EIOPA does not endorse this publication and in no way is liable for copyright or other intellectual property rights infringements nor for any damages caused to third parties through this publication. Statistics Estonia, tables RRI07 and RRI05, CC BY-SA 4.0.